Gold settled higher by 0.24% at 96,691, supported by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand amid renewed trade tensions and mixed signals from the Fed. President Trump’s wave of tariff threats, including new duties on Brazil and potential steep levies on copper and other imports, continues to stoke concerns over global trade disruptions, boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge. Meanwhile, the Fed’s June minutes revealed a split on the timing of interest rate cuts—some officials favoring easing as early as July while others see no cuts necessary this year—underscoring a data-driven approach amid tariff-related inflation risks and mixed economic data.
On the central bank front, China’s gold reserves edged up slightly to 73.90 million ounces in June, while net global purchases rose by 20 tonnes in May, led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland. Physical demand in Asia stayed muted due to elevated prices. Indian discounts narrowed to $14/oz amid lower imports, while premiums in China widened to as high as $33/oz, suggesting stronger demand than in other regions. Gold ETFs saw their largest semi-annual inflow since 2020, adding $38 billion and 397.1 tonnes in H1 2025, lifting total holdings to 3,615.9 tonnes.
Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 0.76% to 11,957 lots while prices rose by 230 rupees. Gold finds support at 96,430, with a break lower likely testing 96,170. Resistance is at 96,965, and a move above could push prices to 97,240.
