Gold settled higher by 0.59% at 97,788 as investors digested fresh U.S. inflation data and awaited further clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s evolving trade policy. U.S. consumer prices rose in June by the most in five months, reflecting tariff impacts and raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady until at least September. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan reinforced this cautious stance, suggesting rates may stay unchanged to manage tariff-driven inflation pressures.
According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 59.9% probability of a rate cut in September, while the Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% in July. Meanwhile, global central bank demand stayed firm, with net gold purchases of 20 tonnes in May led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore. On the physical side, demand in major Asian markets remained tepid as volatile prices dampened buying interest. Chinese dealers maintained solid premiums of $10–$25 per ounce over global benchmarks, while Indian market discounts narrowed to up to $8 an ounce due to tight supplies and limited scrap availability during the monsoon lull.
Technically, gold is under short covering with open interest down 0.9% to 10,624 while prices gained 577. Immediate support is at 97,160 and a break below may test 96,530, while resistance is pegged at 98,350, with a move above likely to push prices towards 98,910.
