Volkswagen’s Traton SE Cuts Full-Year Outlook Amid U.S. Trade Tensions
Volkswagen’s truck subsidiary Traton SE (ETR: 8TRA) slashed its full-year outlook on Thursday, citing rising global uncertainty, particularly in the U.S., where trade tensions and hesitant buyer sentiment are dampening demand.
Following the announcement, Traton’s shares plunged nearly 9% in Frankfurt trading. The company now expects unit sales and revenue to decline by up to 10%, compared to its previous forecast of a 5% drop to 5% growth. Additionally, it has lowered its adjusted operating margin target to 6%–7%, down from the earlier 7.5%–8.5%.
According to Jefferies analysts, the revised guidance implies an EBIT of €2.6–3.3 billion, with the midpoint at €2.9 billion, which is below the consensus estimate of $3.2 billion. “Focus will be on the change to ’25 guide with Group EBIT -20% at the midpoint,” noted analyst Michael Aspinall, adding that the guidance cut is larger than expected given that the primary weakness stems from the U.S., which contributes only 10% of EBIT in 2025.
Despite an 11% rise in first-half orders, driven by replacement demand in Europe, Traton flagged a fragile economic environment. It cited continued weakness in Europe, subdued conditions in Brazil, and persistent caution from North American truck buyers.
“Although we are currently operating in a difficult and uncertain market environment, we are proactively addressing these challenges with cost consciousness, production flexibility, and focus on services,” said CEO Christian Levin.
